In a rally that sent political ripples through West Bengal, Union Home Minister Amit Shah made a resounding declaration: Mamata Banerjee’s era is on its way out. Addressing a gathering in the politically sensitive district of Murshidabad, Shah confidently predicted the fall of the Trinamool Congress (TMC) government in the 2026 state elections. With that, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has shifted gears, reigniting its ambitions to conquer Bengal after two decades of outsider status.
More than a prediction, Shah’s speech was a political manifesto—detailing BJP’s vision for West Bengal, contrasting sharply with Mamata Banerjee’s governance model.
Shah’s Accusations: A Familiar But Fierce Tone
Throughout his address, Amit Shah repeated themes that have become staples in BJP’s Bengal narrative. His top accusations were centered around:
- Corruption: Alleging that the TMC government is neck-deep in financial scandals, from school jobs to central fund misuse.
- Infiltration: Claiming that illegal immigration has altered Bengal’s demographic balance and threatens national security.
- Appeasement Politics: Arguing that the TMC’s governance has favored vote-bank strategies over genuine welfare.
“West Bengal, a land known for its contribution to freedom and culture, has now been pushed into chaos by TMC’s greed and arrogance,” Shah declared.
A Call for 35 Lok Sabha Seats
Interestingly, Shah’s speech linked BJP’s fate in the 2026 Assembly election to the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. He urged voters to hand BJP 35 of Bengal’s 42 parliamentary seats, saying that would “seal Mamata’s fate.” The reasoning is clear: a strong BJP showing in the general election would demonstrate waning support for the TMC and build momentum for state-level change.
This dual-goal strategy reflects the BJP’s all-in approach to Bengal—where each election is seen as a stepping stone to ultimate control.
BJP’s Bengal Ambition: Strategy Beyond Slogans
Despite setbacks in the 2021 Assembly election—where BJP won 77 seats but fell short of dislodging Mamata—the party has maintained and even expanded its footprint in rural Bengal and border districts. Amit Shah’s speech reflects a refined strategy:
- Reorganize the party base in North Bengal, where it performed strongly.
- Appeal to Hindu voters, particularly in border districts where concerns about immigration are strong.
- Highlight failures of welfare implementation, especially where central schemes have stalled.
Additionally, the BJP plans to promote local faces and mitigate the perception that it is a Delhi-centric party with little cultural understanding of Bengal.
TMC’s Pushback: Dismissing Shah as ‘Disconnected’
The Trinamool Congress wasted no time in dismissing Shah’s statement. Senior leaders called the comments “recycled threats” and pointed out that the BJP has made similar predictions before—most notably before the 2021 polls.
TMC spokesperson Kunal Ghosh said, “Amit Shah has no moral right to speak on Bengal. His party’s role in inciting violence is well-known. The people of Bengal have rejected this divisive politics before and will do so again.”
Moreover, Mamata Banerjee continues to project herself as a “daughter of the soil”—someone deeply connected to Bengal’s culture and committed to regional autonomy.
A Tale of Two Models
What unfolds now is not just a political contest, but a clash of governance models. The BJP offers what it calls “double-engine growth”—states governed by both the Centre and BJP are said to benefit from faster development. In contrast, Mamata Banerjee pitches Bengal’s model as one of resistance and self-sufficiency, marked by extensive welfare outreach.
The BJP’s challenge lies in persuading voters that it can both govern and preserve Bengal’s cultural uniqueness—a task it has struggled with in the past.
The Voter’s Dilemma: Stability or Change?
While Mamata Banerjee still commands loyalty across key voter segments—especially women and minority communities—there is visible fatigue among youth and small-business owners. Rising inflation, unemployment, and corruption charges are hurting the TMC’s image.
On the other hand, the BJP must overcome perceptions that it lacks credible local leadership and relies too heavily on national figures. Its focus on national security and Hindutva politics may not resonate uniformly across Bengal’s diverse electorate.
Conclusion
Amit Shah’s proclamation that Mamata Banerjee’s rule is ending may sound like political bluster—but it’s also a calibrated move to energize the BJP’s Bengal base. With both parties now in full campaign mode, West Bengal is once again set to be a high-voltage battleground. Whether Shah’s prediction comes true depends not just on strategy or speeches, but on whether voters are truly ready to trade continuity for change.